The World at Risk

(FORTUNE Magazine) – JUNE 23, 2006 A look at hot spots, economic fault lines, and events that might have an impact on global risk 1. COLOMBIA A new congress, with a strong majority backing President Uribe, is likely to support the government's proposals to streamline taxes.

2. CONGO Instability in northern Katanga and mineral-rich eastern provinces will continue despite President Kabila's expected reelection.

3. SERBIA After Montenegro's secession comes the difficult task of reaching agreement on Kosovo and complying with war-crimes tribunals.

4. TURKEY The central bank may announce anti-inflation measures, forcing the government to consider wage freezes or cuts in public spending.

5. RUSSIA Rising tensions with the EU and the U.S. on energy security will lead to an unproductive G-8 summit July 15--17 in St. Petersburg.

6. NORTH KOREA Launch of a long-range missile would risk greater U.S. and Japanese economic sanctions and put an end to six-party nuclear talks.

KEY: INCREASED RISK DECREASED RISK NO CHANGE ANALYSIS BY EURASIA GROUP