The world at risk - July 21, 2006
A look at hot spots, economic fault lines, and events that might have an impact on global risk.
Analysis by Eurasia Group

(FORTUNE Magazine) -- 1. MEXICO Calderón's narrow victory is likely to be upheld, but a polarized landscape and a weak mandate will constrain his ability to govern.

2. ARGENTINA To offset a 56% hike in the price of Bolivian gas, Argentina will probably anger Chile by raising rates on the gas it sells to its neighbor.

3. POLAND The appointment of President Kaczynski's twin brother as Prime Minister could lead to an attack on central-bank independence.

4. SOMALIA Islamic courts will consolidate control of Mogadishu and surrounding areas, while peace talks with the transitional government falter.

5. INDIA An offshore natural-gas find will stimulate interest in exploration by multinational oil companies and ease pressure for a pipeline from Iran.

6. JAPAN Hawkish Shinzo Abe is likely to succeed Prime Minister Koizumi in September and ratchet up tensions with China.  Top of page