The world at risk

Hot spots, fault lines, and events that might have an impact on global risk.

Analysis By Eurasia Group

(Fortune Magazine) -- 1. Brazil Despite opposition candidate Geraldo Alckmin's expected strong showing in the Oct. 31 presidential runoff, incumbent Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva will prevail and maintain his ability to govern in a second term.

2. Democratic Republic of Congo President Joseph Kabila will win a decisive reelection victory in the Oct. 29 runoff, improving the climate for investment in the country's rich minerals sector.

3. Sudan Sudan will continue to rebuff UN and Arab League peacekeeping proposals for Darfur, leading to increased violence and greater momentum for the divestment campaign against companies operating in Sudan.

4. Iraq Tensions between Kurdish regional authorities and Baghdad over control of oil could destabilize the already weak federal government, derailing passage of a national hydrocarbons law.

5. Thailand The new military government's lack of competence in economic matters and its failure to appoint experienced technocrats could undermine the Thai economy.

6. North Korea North Korea's underground nuclear test in early October, while evoking a strong international response, raises the risk of further escalatory behavior by Pyongyang, including possible military confrontation.  Top of page