The world at risk

Hot spots, fault lines and events that might have an impact on global risk.


(Fortune Magazine) -- 1. Mexico The Fox administration will resolve much of the political crisis in Oaxaca before incoming President Felipe Calderón takes power, but the social malaise from which the conflict arose will become a leadership challenge.

2. Ecuador Populist candidate Álvaro Noboa will win a Nov. 26 runoff against radical Rafael Correa and be in a strong position to forge a working majority in Congress to push energy reform and a free-trade agreement with the U.S.

3. Brazil President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva will begin to set the course of his second-term reform agenda, including limiting growth of government spending.

4. Chad Skirmishes between supporters of President Idriss Déby and his Sudanese-backed opponents will intensify near Chad's border with Sudan's Darfur region, potentially destabilizing the marginal oil producer.

5. Iraq The risk of a collapse of Prime Minister Nuri Kamal al-Maliki's government will increase after U.S. midterm elections, as he remains unwilling to confront Shia militias and unable to advance political reconciliation with Sunnis.

6. China President Hu Jintao will continue to consolidate power, using the corruption crackdown to hurt political adversaries in the Politburo. The focus of the attacks will shift from Shanghai to the capital.

Analysis by Eurasia Group  Top of page