THE WORLD AT RISK
HOT SPOTS, FAULT LINES, AND EVENTS THAT MIGHT HAVE AN IMPACT ON GLOBAL RISK
By ANALYSIS BY EURASIA GROUP

(FORTUNE Magazine) – 1. Guinea The naming of a successor by President Conté, Africa's longest-ruling dictator, and his refusal to step down in the face of union demands threaten stability and pose risks to bauxite and gold industries.

2. Ukraine Persistent tensions between Prime Minister Yanukovich and the opposition led by President Yushchenko will hinder reforms and planned privatizations of 2007.

3. Turkey Passage of a U.S. congressional resolution calling for recognition of the Armenian genocide would exacerbate tensions with Washington, intensify nationalism, and force Ankara to adopt a more aggressive foreign policy toward Iraq's Kurds.

4. Yemen A new round of Shiite violence in the north is unlikely to develop into an all-out civil war, but it could destabilize the government's mission to attract foreign investors.

5. Russia Gazprom's effective takeover of SUEK, Russia's largest coal company, solidifies its dominant position in the energy sector and raises questions about the viability of a proposed competitive power market.

6. China The U.S. Trade Representative's filing of a WTO complaint over Chinese export subsidies presages a rise in bilateral trade tensions. But it is unlikely to lead to significant concessions, raising the risk of punitive legislation in the second half of the year.