The world at risk
Hot spots, fault lines, and events that might have an impact on global risk.
(Fortune Magazine) -- 1. Ecuador
Radical-leftist candidate Rafael Correa could grab second place in the Oct. 15 presidential election. Though it's likely he'll lose to centrist Leon Roldos in a second-round runoff, he'll push the next government's agenda to the left.
A feud between President Olusegun Obasanjo and his archrival, Vice President Atiku Abubakar, who is facing as-yet-unproven corruption charges, could stall this fall's primaries and trigger a meltdown in the oil-rich nation.
The expected merger of Russia's two largest aluminum firms, Rusal and Sual, solidifies control of a vital sector by a Kremlin-friendly oligarch and will help the merged company gain access to international markets.
Tensions are likely to rise before December parliamentary elections as the Shia opposition accuses the Sunni-dominated government of racing to naturalize Sunni immigrants to undercut the Shia majority.
Despite surviving a no-confidence vote, the Pakistani government faces more unified Baluchi opposition as a result of the killing of senior Baluchi nationalist Nawab Akbar Khan Bugti by Pakistani forces.
Fears of a resurgence of Japanese hypernationalism under new Prime Minister Shinzo Abe are misplaced, and there is little chance that chilly relations with China and South Korea will worsen in coming months.